El Niño winter outlook: NYC could get half its usual snow or less

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its three-month winter outlook. It calls for a warmer than normal season across much of the United States, with about normal precipitation. Forecasters said El Niño, a temporary warming in parts of the Pacific, is the main reason.

Warmer air does not mean more snow. The National Weather Service does not issue seasonal snowfall forecasts, but its meteorologists said the Northeast, along with the Great Lakes, the Upper Midwest and the Northern Rockies, should expect less snow than usual.

What the snow forecast means for NYC

The private forecasting firm AccuWeather expects New York, Boston, Chicago and Philadelphia to get about half their normal winter snow or less. Of the big metro areas, only Salt Lake City is forecast to get more snow than usual.

A single big storm could still change the picture. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range forecaster, said the weeks from late January through February are when East Coast storms deserve the closest watch. “It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the East Coast cities,” he said.

Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, also said a mild outlook leaves room for storms. “It doesn’t erase the risk,” he said at a briefing on the forecast.

Warmer than normal across most of the country

In the contiguous US, forecasters see above-normal temperatures for at least some part of 41 states. No state is forecast to be colder than average. Jon Gottschalck, a branch chief at the National Weather Service, said outbreaks of Arctic air from the polar vortex should be less common than in most winters, but they can still happen.

For the days ahead, see our NYC weather this week forecast.