Hochul holds a 9-point lead over Blakeman six weeks out, Siena poll finds

A Siena poll released Wednesday, Sept. 23, shows Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 50% to 41% among likely voters. The Nov. 3 election for New York governor is six weeks away, and Hochul is seeking a second four-year term.

A month ago, Siena had Hochul ahead 49% to 39%. Pollster Steven Greenberg said that at this point in 2022, Hochul led Republican Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54% to 37%, and went on to win by six.

Hochul vs. Blakeman: favorability and top issues

Voters are evenly split on the governor. Her favorability is 48% favorable and 48% unfavorable, and 48% approve of her job performance while 47% disapprove. Nearly a third of voters either do not know Blakeman or have no opinion of him. He is at 35% favorable and 34% unfavorable.

Hochul leads on the three issues the poll asked about. Voters picked her over Blakeman 49% to 40% on making prices more affordable, 49% to 43% on making New Yorkers safer and 47% to 43% on handling undocumented immigrants. Two-thirds expect her to win, including 37% of Republicans. Only 38% say the state is headed in the right direction and 49% say it is on the wrong track. For the country, it is 28% right direction to 66% wrong track.

“With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman,” Greenberg said.

Trump and Mamdani endorsements in the governor’s race

President Trump’s backing looks like a drag on Blakeman: 51% of likely voters see it as harmful. That view is held by 69% of Democrats, but also by nearly half of independents (49%) and about one Republican in four (24%). Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s support for Hochul cuts the other way, with half of voters calling it a plus. Democrats are the most likely to say so at 72%, compared with 40% of independents and 22% of Republicans. Mamdani’s favorability rating among likely voters is 46%. Both men feature in TV ads: the governor’s campaign links her opponent to the president, and spots from the Republican side portray Hochul as under the mayor’s control.

Further down the ballot, Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy, a former federal prosecutor, 52% to 39%. In August, James led 54% to 36%. Two-thirds of likely voters have never heard of Komatireddy or do not know enough to judge her. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 56% to 33%. In one month, opposition to building large data centers in New York rose from 52% to 63%, and 74% oppose the president renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America.” Siena reached 1,144 likely voters by phone and text between Sept. 11 and 17. Results can be off by as much as 3.9 points in either direction.